Fafe 2-1 Paredes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 29 Nov 2025

Fafe
2-1 HT 0-1
Paredes
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
42%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Paredes EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.48/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.06
+15% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Paredes
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 Paredes Paredes 1-1 HT 0-1 Fafe Fafe POR3
28.01.2023 Paredes Paredes 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
09.10.2022 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Paredes Paredes POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
2-1
AWAY Paredes
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Paredes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe squeezed past Paredes 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fafe had 51% of the ball to Paredes's 49%, shots finished 14-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Fafe had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fafe and 0.33 for Paredes.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Paredes?

Fafe 2-1 Paredes in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Paredes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fafe 49%, draw 25%, Paredes 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5
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