Leicester City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leicester City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Leicester City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
FAK
2-2
HT 2-1
Leicester City
FAK
4-1
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
2-1
HT 0-1
Derby County
İNLK
0-1
HT 0-1
Leicester City
İNCL
Leicester City 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Leicester City edged past Derby County 2-1.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leicester City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Leicester City had 45% of the ball to Derby County's 55%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.68 to 0.69.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Leicester City and 1.00 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Leicester City vs Derby County?
Leicester City 2-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 29/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leicester City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 43%, draw 23%, Derby County 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leicester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.