Millwall 2-1 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Dec 2025

📅29/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.5
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.24
X/2
15%
6.16
X/X
13%
4.28
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
12%
4.48
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.29/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.30
-8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
301 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
22.7 Crosses 17.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bristol City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.98 xG 1.38
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
275 Passes 348
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2025 Bristol City Bristol City 0-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
04.03.2025 Millwall Millwall 0-2 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
17.08.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 4-3 HT 2-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
01.01.2024 Bristol City Bristol City 0-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
12.08.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
29.12.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
2-1
AWAY Bristol City
0.61 xG 0.96
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
242 Passes 367
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall edged past Bristol City 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Millwall as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millwall had 42% of the ball to Bristol City's 58%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.61 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Millwall and 1.17 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Bristol City?

Millwall 2-1 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 29/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Millwall 41%, draw 26%, Bristol City 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5
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