Oxford United 0-1 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Dec 2025

📅29/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.75
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.11
6+ Goals
9%
19.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.98
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
13%
5.66
X/2
12%
5.64
X/X
14%
4.21
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
18%
3.95
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.22/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.23
-16% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.8 Crosses 17.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Swansea City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.41 xG 1.32
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
249 Passes 397
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2025 Swansea City Swansea City 2-0 HT 2-0 Oxford United Oxford United İNCL
03.05.2025 Swansea City Swansea City 3-3 HT 1-1 Oxford United Oxford United İNCL
02.11.2024 Oxford United Oxford United 1-2 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
21.07.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City HAZ
09.08.2022 Oxford United Oxford United 2-2 HT 0-2 Swansea City Swansea City İNLK
10.01.2016 Oxford United Oxford United 3-2 HT 1-1 Swansea City Swansea City FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
0-1
AWAY Swansea City
0.48 xG 0.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
264 Passes 306
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
10 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City squeezed past Oxford United 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Swansea City found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Oxford United had 47% of the ball to Swansea City's 53%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.48 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Oxford United and 1.83 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Swansea City?

Oxford United 0-1 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 29/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 34%, draw 29%, Swansea City 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swansea City), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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