Zalgiris Vilnius 2-3 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 HT 0-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
30.06.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 HT 1-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
12.05.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
17.03.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-3 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
04.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
13.08.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 HT 3-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
2-3
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen nicked a narrow win over Zalgiris Vilnius 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 53% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 47%, shots finished 12-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.50 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Zalgiris Vilnius 2-3 Hegelmann Litauen in the Friendlies on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 50%, draw 27%, Hegelmann Litauen 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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