Almere City 1-2 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 30 Jan 2026

📅30/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.48
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.54
6+ Goals
14%
5.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.76
X/2
11%
9.25
X/X
7%
6.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
19.35
2/2
12%
6.14
2/X
7%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.35 — our 7% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.1pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 27%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.87/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.58
+2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
23.9 Crosses 15.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Roda
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.46 xG 1.44
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
307 Passes 377
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.10.2025 Roda Roda 2-0 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
24.02.2023 Roda Roda 0-2 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
30.09.2022 Almere City Almere City 2-1 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOL2
14.01.2022 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-3 Roda Roda HOL2
27.08.2021 Roda Roda 3-4 HT 1-2 Almere City Almere City HOL2
10.10.2020 Almere City Almere City 2-1 HT 2-1 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-2
AWAY Roda
1.65 xG 2.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
23 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 13
306 Passes 333
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
43 Box Touches 42
19 Crosses 28
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda nicked a narrow win over Almere City 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Almere City at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Almere City had 49% of the ball to Roda's 51%, shots finished 23-24, expected goals 1.65 to 2.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almere City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Almere City and 1.83 for Roda.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Roda?

Almere City 1-2 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 30/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Almere City 52%, draw 21%, Roda 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Almere City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almere City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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