FC Eindhoven 5-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 30 Jan 2026

📅30/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.39
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
12%
4.65
X/2
12%
8.63
X/X
9%
5.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.5
2/2
10%
6.18
2/X
9%
14.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.5 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.7pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.5pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -14%
1.38/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.65
-19% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 71%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.2 Crosses 15.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
1W-1D-4L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.23 xG 1.05
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
368 Passes 348
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
14.02.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
17.11.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
26.01.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-3 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.10.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
31.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 2-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
5-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
51% Ball Possession 49%
24 Total Shots 8
13 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Eindhoven swept aside MVV Maastricht 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 51% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 49%, shots finished 24-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht?

FC Eindhoven 5-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 30/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 50%, draw 22%, MVV Maastricht 28%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Eindhoven), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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