MVV Maastricht 3-1 FC Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.95
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
12%
8.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.75
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
16%
4.97
X/2
13%
7.32
X/X
11%
5.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.25
2/2
8%
4.98
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
+4.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.7pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.83/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.08
+34% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
15.6 Crosses 18.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Eindhoven
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
343 Passes 362
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.02.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
17.11.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
26.01.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-3 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.10.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
31.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 2-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
09.09.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 5-0 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
3-1
AWAY FC Eindhoven
0.72 xG 1.95
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
389 Passes 326
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs FC Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht got the better of FC Eindhoven 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had MVV Maastricht as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 54% of the ball to FC Eindhoven's 46%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.72 to 1.95 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Eindhoven.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.50 for FC Eindhoven.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs FC Eindhoven?

MVV Maastricht 3-1 FC Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs FC Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 51%, draw 22%, FC Eindhoven 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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