Helmond Sport 2-1 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.84
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
8%
5.96
X/2
13%
5.55
X/X
12%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
16%
3.45
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.4pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -7%
1.34/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.18
-2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
19.1 Crosses 17.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Almere City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.69 xG 1.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
255 Passes 352
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
02.09.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-0 HT 1-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
11.03.2022 Almere City Almere City 3-0 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
01.11.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-2 Almere City Almere City HOL2
16.02.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 1-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
25.09.2020 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
2-1
AWAY Almere City
1.38 xG 1.36
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
277 Passes 334
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport squeezed past Almere City 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Helmond Sport found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 46% of the ball to Almere City's 54%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.38 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almere City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.33 for Almere City.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Almere City?

Helmond Sport 2-1 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 38%, draw 24%, Almere City 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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