Willem II 1-2 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.91
6+ Goals
8%
8.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.89
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
17%
5.08
X/2
9%
6.91
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
11%
4.64
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
45%
+5.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.38/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.48
+3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
22.6 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Roda
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 340
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 Willem II Willem II 2-3 HT 2-1 Roda Roda HOL2
21.10.2023 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
19.05.2023 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
06.01.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
25.02.2018 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL
01.02.2018 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-2
AWAY Roda
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda squeezed past Willem II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Willem II at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Willem II had 55% of the ball to Roda's 45%, shots finished 14-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Willem II and 1.17 for Roda.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Roda?

Willem II 1-2 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Willem II 50%, draw 24%, Roda 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Willem II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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