Ajax II 2-2 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
49%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.38
No
39%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.85
2-3 Goals
35%
2.17
4-5 Goals
32%
2.36
6+ Goals
13%
4.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.14
1/2
8%
17.95
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
10%
8.5
X/2
16%
5.05
X/X
8%
7.19
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
25%
2.34
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.4pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.5pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-2.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
68%
-7.8pp
39%
BTTS No
32%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -21%
1.20/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.40
+24% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
9.9 Crosses 23.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
3W-0D-3L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.05 xG 2.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
381 Passes 334
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 37
8 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2025 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
09.12.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.03.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
21.08.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
13.01.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
22.08.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 5-1 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
2-2
AWAY De Graafschap
1.11 xG 1.23
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 11
340 Passes 401
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 27
4 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II and De Graafschap shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ajax II had 46% of the ball to De Graafschap's 54%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.11 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ajax II and 1.33 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs De Graafschap?

Ajax II 2-2 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 30%, draw 21%, De Graafschap 49%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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