ADO Den Haag 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 30 Jan 2026

ADO Den Haag
1-4 HT 0-2
AZ Alkmaar II
📅30/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.28
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.17
Over 2.5
67%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.66
No
37%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
7.49
2-3 Goals
34%
2.26
4-5 Goals
30%
2.34
6+ Goals
20%
4.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.43
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
20.75
X/1
16%
4.17
X/2
5%
20.65
X/X
9%
10.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
18.3
2/2
5%
15.55
2/X
4%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.3 — our 14% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
ADO Den Haag win — 68% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
74%
-5.5pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.9pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.7pp
33%
Under 2.5
28%
+4.4pp
67%
Over 2.5
72%
-4.4pp
63%
BTTS Yes
56%
+7.2pp
37%
BTTS No
44%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ADO Den Haag v AZ Alkmaar II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 14%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +27%
1.84/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.71
-9% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
25.8 Crosses 8.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
4W-1D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
319 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.10.2025 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-4 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
11.03.2025 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-3 HT 0-3 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
22.11.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-3 HT 0-3 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
23.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-2 HT 1-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
03.09.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 4-1 HT 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
19.05.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-2 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2

ADO Den Haag 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
1-4
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
59% Ball Possession 41%
26 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 8
12 Corners 4
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II ran out comfortable winners over ADO Den Haag 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. ADO Den Haag carried 68% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 59% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 41%, shots finished 26-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.33 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar II?

ADO Den Haag 1-4 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 30/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 68%, draw 18%, AZ Alkmaar II 14%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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