Brindisi 2-0 Virtus Francavilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
44%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.64
Over 2.5
33%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.5
6+ Goals
5%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 36% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
22%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.5pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.0pp
44%
Away Win
56%
-11.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
57%
+9.9pp
33%
Over 2.5
43%
-9.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.3pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brindisi EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Francavilla EU Bookmakers 60%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-46% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
225 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brindisi
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2023 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 2-0 HT 1-0 Brindisi Brindisi İTC
04.10.2023 Virtus Francavilla Virtus Francavilla 0-1 HT 0-1 Brindisi Brindisi İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brindisi
2-0
AWAY Virtus Francavilla
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brindisi vs Virtus Francavilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brindisi got the better of Virtus Francavilla 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Virtus Francavilla at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brindisi had 43% of the ball to Virtus Francavilla's 57%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Brindisi and 1.00 for Virtus Francavilla.

What was the final score of Brindisi vs Virtus Francavilla?

Brindisi 2-0 Virtus Francavilla in the Italy - Serie C on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brindisi vs Virtus Francavilla?

Before kick-off our model rated an Virtus Francavilla win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Brindisi 25%, draw 31%, Virtus Francavilla 44%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Virtus Francavilla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Virtus Francavilla) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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