Novara 1-1 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.44
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.9
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.7pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.7pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.26/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.90
-5% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lumezzane
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Lumezzane Lumezzane 1-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
10.05.2015 Lumezzane Lumezzane 0-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
06.01.2015 Novara Novara 1-3 HT 0-2 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-1
AWAY Lumezzane
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Novara vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara and Lumezzane shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Novara had 49% of the ball to Lumezzane's 51%, shots finished 20-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novara and 1.33 for Lumezzane.

What was the final score of Novara vs Lumezzane?

Novara 1-1 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Novara 39%, draw 32%, Lumezzane 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Novara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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