Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fiorentina v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals
Fiorentina vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 2-1
Atalanta
İTA
1-1
HT 0-1
Atalanta
İTA
Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics
Fiorentina nicked a narrow win over Atalanta 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Fiorentina had 45% of the ball to Atalanta's 55%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.62 to 1.06.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Fiorentina and 2.00 for Atalanta.
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 29%, draw 25%, Atalanta 46%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.