Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 27% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.19
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.16
X/2
10%
6.58
X/X
13%
4.7
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.66
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.41/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.67
+3% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.7 Crosses 11.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nashville SC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.54
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
298 Passes 414
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.09.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-2 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
30.05.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-2 HT 0-2 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
05.08.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-1 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC CONLK
16.07.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-1 HT 1-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
26.03.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
24.07.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-1 HT 0-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nashville SC
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.44 xG 1.82
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
362 Passes 442
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Nashville SC 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Nashville SC at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nashville SC had 47% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 53%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 2.44 to 1.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nashville SC.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nashville SC and 1.33 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati?

Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nashville SC 41%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nashville SC), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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