Diosgyor 1-1 Ferencvaros — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
55%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.13 — our 27% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
11%
+12.6pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.2pp
55%
Away Win
71%
-15.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.6pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Diosgyor EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferencvaros EU Bookmakers 75%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.57/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/0.91
-12% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -15%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 83%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
18.7 Crosses 20.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Diosgyor
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ferencvaros
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.34 xG 2.22
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
218 Passes 505
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.11.2024 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 3-3 HT 1-3 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
10.08.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 0-2 HT 0-1 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
11.05.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 2-0 HT 0-0 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
10.04.2024 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 2-1 HT 2-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
03.04.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 0-2 HT 0-1 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MACK
22.10.2023 Diosgyor Diosgyor 1-2 HT 0-1 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Diosgyor
1-1
AWAY Ferencvaros
1.55 xG 1.48
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
385 Passes 240
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 20
33 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Diosgyor vs Ferencvaros
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Diosgyor and Ferencvaros couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ferencvaros at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Diosgyor had 60% of the ball to Ferencvaros's 40%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.55 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ferencvaros led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Diosgyor and 1.83 for Ferencvaros.

What was the final score of Diosgyor vs Ferencvaros?

Diosgyor 1-1 Ferencvaros in the Hungary - NB I on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Diosgyor vs Ferencvaros?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ferencvaros win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Diosgyor 24%, draw 22%, Ferencvaros 55%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ferencvaros) ✗ BTTS No
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