CA Penarol 1-2 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 30 Mar 2026

📅30/03/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.03
No
46%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+2.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
45%
+8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
55%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.51/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.58
-8% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2025 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-4 HT 1-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
01.10.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
17.06.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
17.03.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
03.12.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-2
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo nicked a narrow win over CA Penarol 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CA Penarol at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 64% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 36%, shots finished 14-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CA Penarol and 1.00 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo?

CA Penarol 1-2 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 30/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 56%, draw 24%, Racing Club Montevideo 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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