Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 30 Apr 2025

📅30/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
8%
9.68
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 30% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.57
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
5%
12.15
X/1
7%
5.92
X/2
12%
6.24
X/X
18%
5.0
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
16%
3.88
2/X
8%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.8pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/0.00
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rostov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 1.48
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
246 Passes 331
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2025 Rostov Rostov 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
23.10.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
25.08.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 2-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
30.07.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
06.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
28.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
0-2
AWAY Rostov
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov beat Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Rostov found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 53% of the ball to Rostov's 47%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.00 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 Rostov in the Russia - Super Cup on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 35%, draw 30%, Rostov 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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