Gremio 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 30 May 2025

📅30/05/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.22
Draw
25%
5.28
Away
18%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.33
No
54%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
78%
-21.0pp
25%
Draw
16%
+9.2pp
18%
Away Win
7%
+11.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
39%
+7.2pp
54%
BTTS No
61%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno EU Bookmakers 9%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.64/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.15
-15% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +8%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
424 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 72%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
17.6 Crosses 14.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 0.38
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
331 Passes 149
76% Pass Accuracy 59%
27 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.04.2025 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-0
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
4.72 xG 0.08
71% Ball Possession 29%
29 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 2
461 Passes 145
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
59 Box Touches 3
38 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Sportivo Luqueno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Sportivo Luqueno 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Gremio had 71% of the ball to Sportivo Luqueno's 29%, shots finished 29-3, expected goals 4.72 to 0.08 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gremio's control.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Gremio 1-0 Sportivo Luqueno in the Copa Sudamericana on 30/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Gremio 57%, draw 25%, Sportivo Luqueno 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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