Sacramento Republic 1-0 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-11.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.48/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.82
-23% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
22.6 Crosses 16.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 1.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
385 Passes 504
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
8 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.05.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-4 HT 1-2 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
1-0
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.76 xG 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
328 Passes 299
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic squeezed past Hartford Athletic 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 51% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 49%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.76 to 1.17.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Hartford Athletic?

Sacramento Republic 1-0 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 46%, draw 27%, Hartford Athletic 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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