Bochum 1-3 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jul 2024

📅30/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
12%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 29% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.58
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2 EV+ ✓
16%
7.74
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
9%
5.57
2/X
10%
13.65
Value flag · X/2 at 7.74 — our 16% vs market 9.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bochum EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.44/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.41
-15% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bochum
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Spezia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
16.07.2022 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 0-0 Bochum Bochum HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bochum
1-3
AWAY Spezia
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Bochum vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia got the better of Bochum 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Spezia found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Bochum had 63% of the ball to Spezia's 37%, shots finished 14-11.

What was the final score of Bochum vs Spezia?

Bochum 1-3 Spezia in the Friendlies on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bochum vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bochum win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Bochum 40%, draw 28%, Spezia 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bochum) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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