NAC Breda 1-2 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jul 2024

NAC Breda
1-2 HT 0-2
Aris Saloniki
📅30/07/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs Aris Saloniki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.74
6+ Goals
8%
15.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 25% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Aris Saloniki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
6.0 Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards –

NAC Breda 1-2 Aris Saloniki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-2
AWAY Aris Saloniki
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki edged past NAC Breda 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Aris Saloniki found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 51% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 49%, shots finished 5-11.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Aris Saloniki?

NAC Breda 1-2 Aris Saloniki in the Friendlies on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aris Saloniki win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 36%, draw 27%, Aris Saloniki 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aris Saloniki), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aris Saloniki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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