Ferencvaros 4-3 Noah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 30 Jul 2025

📅30/07/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.45
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
29%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
64%
-15.7pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.5pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.9pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferencvaros EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Noah EU Bookmakers 19%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+24% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
449 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ferencvaros
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Noah
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.79 xG 0.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
252 Passes 352
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2025 Noah Noah 1-2 HT 1-1 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferencvaros
4-3
AWAY Noah
2.27 xG 0.79
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
324 Passes 333
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ferencvaros vs Noah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferencvaros squeezed past Noah 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ferencvaros as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ferencvaros had 48% of the ball to Noah's 52%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.27 to 0.79 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ferencvaros's control.

What was the final score of Ferencvaros vs Noah?

Ferencvaros 4-3 Noah in the Champions League on 30/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferencvaros vs Noah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ferencvaros win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ferencvaros 49%, draw 25%, Noah 26%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ferencvaros), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ferencvaros) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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