Racing Santander 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jul 2025

📅30/07/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.39
6+ Goals
8%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 31% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.95
1/2
8%
23.5
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
13%
8.01
X/2
16%
4.63
X/X
9%
4.95
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
13%
2.54
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
26%
+10.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
37%
Away Win
49%
-12.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Santander EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 53%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.98/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/0.86
-22% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +41%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
259 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Santander
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
192 Passes 508
65% Pass Accuracy 83%
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.07.2024 Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-2 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
27.07.2023 Racing Santander Racing Santander 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
04.08.2019 Racing Santander Racing Santander 2-1 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
02.12.2016 Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-2 HT 1-2 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK
22.04.2012 Racing Santander Racing Santander 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
11.12.2011 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Santander Racing Santander İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Santander
2-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Racing Santander vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Santander squeezed past Athletic Bilbao 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Racing Santander found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Racing Santander had 34% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 66%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Racing Santander and 1.17 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Racing Santander vs Athletic Bilbao?

Racing Santander 2-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Friendlies on 30/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Santander vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Racing Santander 36%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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