Monza 1-3 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jul 2026

Monza
1-3 HT 0-2
Aris Saloniki
📅30/07/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Monza vs Aris Saloniki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.4
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.57
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
12%
4.64
X/2
9%
7.85
X/X
10%
4.81
2/1
9%
23.5
2/2
10%
5.81
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Aris Saloniki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 29%
-67% / -67% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
0.00/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
-100% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -47%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
412 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Monza 1-3 Aris Saloniki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-3
AWAY Aris Saloniki
11 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki got the better of Monza 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Monza at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 11-6.

What was the final score of Monza vs Aris Saloniki?

Monza 1-3 Aris Saloniki in the Friendlies on 30/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Monza 50%, draw 26%, Aris Saloniki 24%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monza), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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