Penybont 0-1 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
3.02
2-3 Goals
35%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
8%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 35% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.54/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/0.60
-10% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
314 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.01.2025 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
15.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
13.01.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
30.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-2 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
15.04.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
11.03.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay nicked a narrow win over Penybont 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Penybont at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Penybont and 1.00 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Connahs Quay?

Penybont 0-1 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Penybont 48%, draw 29%, Connahs Quay 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Penybont) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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