Atletico San Luis 1-3 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
60%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.65
6+ Goals
10%
7.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
13%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
20%
+2.7pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.1pp
60%
Away Win
59%
+1.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 62%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.01/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.04
+15% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +84%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
287 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 85%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
16.0 Crosses 16.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Toluca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.95 xG 1.48
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
355 Passes 432
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2025 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-1 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
25.08.2024 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
20.04.2024 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-5 HT 1-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
29.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
26.02.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
22.08.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
1-3
AWAY Toluca
1.36 xG 2.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 8
391 Passes 346
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca beat Atletico San Luis 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 52% of the ball to Toluca's 48%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.36 to 2.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico San Luis and 2.17 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Toluca?

Atletico San Luis 1-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 22%, draw 18%, Toluca 60%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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