FC Juarez 1-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.55
6+ Goals
12%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.3pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
1.56/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.55
-18% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
317 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
24.3 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.22 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
330 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.01.2025 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
14.09.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
20.04.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
02.09.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
26.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez CONLK
04.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
1-0
AWAY Mazatlan
1.78 xG 0.60
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
283 Passes 380
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez squeezed past Mazatlan 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Juarez as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 43% of the ball to Mazatlan's 57%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.78 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for FC Juarez and 0.83 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Mazatlan?

FC Juarez 1-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 50%, draw 26%, Mazatlan 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Juarez), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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