Atletico San Luis 0-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Apr 2025

Atletico San Luis
0-1 HT 0-1
Toluca
📅17/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Atletico San Luis vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.87
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
47%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.88
2-3 Goals
41%
2.06
4-5 Goals
24%
2.47
6+ Goals
12%
5.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
22%
+8.4pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-7.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.0pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico San Luis v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 59%
+9% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.15/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/0.98
+33% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +22%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
308 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 78%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
14.7 Crosses 15.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Atletico San Luis vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Toluca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.25 xG 1.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
344 Passes 402
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.08.2024 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
20.04.2024 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-5 HT 1-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
29.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
26.02.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
22.08.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
13.02.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-1 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK

Atletico San Luis 0-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
0-1
AWAY Toluca
0.60 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 7
355 Passes 375
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca edged past Atletico San Luis 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 51% of the ball to Toluca's 49%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.60 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico San Luis and 2.17 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Toluca?

Atletico San Luis 0-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 31%, draw 22%, Toluca 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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