Mazatlan 0-2 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Apr 2025

Mazatlan
0-2 HT 0-0
Tijuana
📅17/04/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Mazatlan vs Tijuana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.18
Over 2.5
45%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 29% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
42%
+13.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
58%
-13.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.2pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Tijuana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.53/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.51
-10% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
17.8 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Mazatlan vs Tijuana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tijuana
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.78 xG 1.30
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
313 Passes 368
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 1-0 HT 1-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
30.03.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
26.08.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
15.04.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
31.07.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
12.02.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK

Mazatlan 0-2 Tijuana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
0-2
AWAY Tijuana
0.44 xG 1.46
64% Ball Possession 36%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
435 Passes 228
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana got the better of Mazatlan 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Mazatlan at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mazatlan had 64% of the ball to Tijuana's 36%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.44 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tijuana led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mazatlan and 1.00 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Tijuana?

Mazatlan 0-2 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 43%, draw 29%, Tijuana 27%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mazatlan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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