Homburg 2-0 Schott Mainz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.37
Draw
14%
4.81
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
Over 2.5
64%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
68%
+1.9pp
14%
Draw
17%
-3.3pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Schott Mainz EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +3%
2.37/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.57
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -21%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
371 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Schott Mainz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 4
02.03.2024 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz 1-2 HT 1-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
29.08.2023 Homburg Homburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz ALMBÖL
05.03.2022 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz 0-3 HT 0-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
18.09.2021 Homburg Homburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz ALMBÖL
20.02.2021 Homburg Homburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz ALMBÖL
15.09.2020 Schott Mainz Schott Mainz 3-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Schott Mainz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg saw off Schott Mainz 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Homburg as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Homburg and 1.17 for Schott Mainz.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Schott Mainz?

Homburg 2-0 Schott Mainz in the Germany - Regional League on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Schott Mainz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Homburg 70%, draw 14%, Schott Mainz 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Homburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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