Willem II 1-0 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 30 Sep 2025

Willem II
1-0 HT 1-0
Helmond Sport
📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

Willem II vs Helmond Sport Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.86
2-3 Goals
45%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
9.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.78
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
15%
4.98
X/2
11%
7.18
X/X
13%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.55
2/2
11%
4.89
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v Helmond Sport — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -33%
1.14/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.60
+10% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
23.7 Crosses 17.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Willem II vs Helmond Sport Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.44 xG 0.73
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
444 Passes 351
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.03.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-2 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
15.12.2023 Willem II Willem II 4-1 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
03.02.2023 Willem II Willem II 5-1 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
14.10.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-3 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
14.07.2015 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HAZ
22.02.2014 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2

Willem II 1-0 Helmond Sport — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-0
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.69 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
309 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II edged past Helmond Sport 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Willem II had 49% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 51%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 2.69 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Willem II's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Willem II and 0.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Helmond Sport?

Willem II 1-0 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Willem II 47%, draw 26%, Helmond Sport 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ BTTS Yes
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