VVV-Venlo 0-1 Den Bosch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.29
Over 2.5
62%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.48
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
15%
7.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.97
1/2
9%
26.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
9%
5.3
X/2
10%
6.65
X/X
9%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.7
2/2
16%
4.2
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.7pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.2pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 36%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +13%
1.43/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.50
-42% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
24.1 Crosses 13.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Den Bosch
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 1.20
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
389 Passes 301
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2025 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
25.10.2024 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-2 HT 0-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
26.04.2024 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-3 HT 0-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
20.10.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-2 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
10.03.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-0 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
19.11.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-2 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
0-1
AWAY Den Bosch
1.59 xG 0.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 6
291 Passes 279
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Den Bosch edged past VVV-Venlo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was VVV-Venlo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 50% of the ball to Den Bosch's 50%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.59 to 0.90 — the balance of chances actually favoured VVV-Venlo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.00 for Den Bosch.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch?

VVV-Venlo 0-1 Den Bosch in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Den Bosch?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 43%, draw 22%, Den Bosch 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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