FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.7
No
39%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.6
2-3 Goals
46%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
64%
-3.5pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.3pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
55%
+6.1pp
39%
BTTS No
45%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 20%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
3.29/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.64
+79% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -32%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FK Orenburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 1.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
201 Passes 374
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.08.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
13.08.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
08.12.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
28.07.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
04.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUSK
26.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
0-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg nicked a narrow win over FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. FC Akhmat Grozny carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 59% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 41%, shots finished 16-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 1.00 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg?

FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Cup on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 60%, draw 22%, FK Orenburg 18%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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