FK Orenburg 2-1 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 13 Aug 2025

📅13/08/2025 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.24
2-3 Goals EV+ ✓
49%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.75 — our 49% vs market 48.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
5%
2/1
3%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
24%
+10.0pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.6pp
44%
Away Win
51%
-6.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 55%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.93/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-10% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
246 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
336 Passes 207
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
28.07.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
04.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUSK
26.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
20.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 4-0 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
04.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-1
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg edged past FC Akhmat Grozny 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Akhmat Grozny at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 49% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 51%, shots finished 13-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.50 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

FK Orenburg 2-1 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Cup on 13/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 34%, draw 22%, FC Akhmat Grozny 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUK More Russia - Cup
13 Aug 2025
18:30 FC Sochi vs Krylya Sovetov Analysis →
18:30 Lokomotiv Moscow vs Baltika Kaliningrad Analysis →
20:45 Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar Analysis →