Hearts 1-2 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 30 Oct 2024

Hearts
1-2 HT 1-0
Kilmarnock
📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Hearts vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.61
6+ Goals
11%
14.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.61 — our 24% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.33
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.02
X/2
12%
8.66
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
2/2
9%
6.77
2/X
7%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.77/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.25
+16% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
292 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 65%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
25.0 Crosses 22.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Hearts vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.06 xG 1.39
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
344 Passes 212
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.03.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
26.09.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKLK
13.08.2023 Hearts Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
01.04.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP

Hearts 1-2 Kilmarnock — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-2
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.11 xG 1.73
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
475 Passes 161
82% Pass Accuracy 61%
36 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock squeezed past Hearts 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hearts at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Hearts had 69% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 31%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.11 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hearts and 0.67 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Hearts 1-2 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hearts 47%, draw 27%, Kilmarnock 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hearts) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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