Brighton & Hove Albion 2-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 30 Oct 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion
2-3 HT 0-0
Liverpool
📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.49
No
51%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
23%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.36
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.96 — our 28% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.33
1/2
6%
22.7
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
13%
7.02
X/2
14%
5.27
X/X
13%
5.37
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
22%
2.88
2/X
6%
11.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.8pp
51%
BTTS No
37%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 48%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
0.73/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.69
-97% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +131%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.7
8.0 Crosses 21.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Liverpool
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
419 Passes 402
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 37
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
08.10.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-2 HT 1-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
29.01.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
14.01.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
01.10.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 3-3 HT 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
12.03.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-2 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Brighton & Hove Albion 2-3 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
2-3
AWAY Liverpool
1.28 xG 1.21
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 2
341 Passes 438
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool nicked a narrow win over Brighton & Hove Albion 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 45% of the ball to Liverpool's 55%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.28 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.67 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool?

Brighton & Hove Albion 2-3 Liverpool in the England - League Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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