Winterswijk 0-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
12.23
Draw
16%
8.78
Away
61%
1.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
35%
Over Pick
65%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
34%
4-5
34%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
22%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
34%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
23%
Home Win
8%
+14.5pp
16%
Draw
11%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterswijk The Market 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles The Market 97%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -52% / -52%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -93% / -47%
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
182 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 484 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
Crosses 22.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterswijk
0-1
AWAY Heracles
0.07 xG 3.06
22% Ball Possession 78%
2 Total Shots 36
0 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 14
63 Passes 523
43% Pass Accuracy 86%
1 Box Touches 59
3 Crosses 53
POST-MATCH Winterswijk vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles edged past Winterswijk 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Heracles as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Winterswijk had 22% of the ball to Heracles's 78%, shots finished 2-36, expected goals 0.07 to 3.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Heracles's control.

What was the final score of Winterswijk vs Heracles?

Winterswijk 0-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterswijk vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Winterswijk 23%, draw 16%, Heracles 61%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heracles) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heracles) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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