KuPS Kuopio 1-1 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 30 Oct 2025

📅30/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.3
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.17
Over 2.5
63%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
8.18
2-3 Goals
36%
2.39
4-5 Goals
29%
2.43
6+ Goals
16%
4.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.47
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
19.6
X/1
18%
4.16
X/2
5%
18.6
X/X
7%
10.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
17.35
2/2
6%
13.65
2/X
5%
22.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.35 — our 8% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
72%
-5.0pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.8pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.3pp
37%
Under 2.5
28%
+8.4pp
63%
Over 2.5
72%
-8.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 15%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
2.02/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.91
+7% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / -18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
20.9 Crosses 18.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Gnistan
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.80 xG 1.02
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
433 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.09.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 0-4 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
01.07.2025 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 6-2 HT 3-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
27.04.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
07.07.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HT 3-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
19.05.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 0-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
20.03.2021 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 5-0 HT 3-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
1-1
AWAY Gnistan
2.40 xG 2.79
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
497 Passes 302
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 36
30 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio and Gnistan couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had KuPS Kuopio at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 60% of the ball to Gnistan's 40%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.40 to 2.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.67 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan?

KuPS Kuopio 1-1 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 30/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 67%, draw 17%, Gnistan 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
30 Oct 2025
19:00 Inter Turku vs SJK Seinajoki Analysis →
20:00 Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki Analysis →