Ilves Tampere 3-1 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 30 Oct 2025

📅30/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.46
Over 2.5
63%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.35
No
35%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
8.44
2-3 Goals
38%
2.42
4-5 Goals
29%
2.42
6+ Goals
14%
4.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
1/X
4%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.96
X/2
11%
9.6
X/X
9%
7.63
2/1
11%
16.9
2/2
12%
5.82
2/X
6%
14.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.0pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.0pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
25%
+11.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
75%
-11.7pp
65%
BTTS Yes
70%
-5.1pp
35%
BTTS No
30%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -14%
1.98/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.46
+15% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
17.1 Crosses 14.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
3W-2D-1L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.16 xG 1.35
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
424 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-2 HT 1-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
11.08.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 5-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
05.04.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
28.09.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
06.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
25.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-1
AWAY HJK Helsinki
2.37 xG 0.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
485 Passes 434
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere saw off HJK Helsinki 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 52% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 48%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 2.37 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ilves Tampere and 1.67 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki?

Ilves Tampere 3-1 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 30/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 48%, draw 19%, HJK Helsinki 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
30 Oct 2025
19:00 Inter Turku vs SJK Seinajoki Analysis →
19:00 KuPS Kuopio vs Gnistan Analysis →