Chorley 0-3 Curzon Ashton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-4.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.9pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Curzon Ashton EU Bookmakers 36%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +26%
1.36/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.13
-3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Curzon Ashton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.04.2024 Chorley Chorley 0-0 HT 0-0 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
23.12.2023 Chorley Chorley 4-0 HT 2-0 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
30.09.2023 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton 2-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley FAK
09.09.2023 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton 0-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
25.03.2023 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton 2-1 HT 2-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
03.12.2022 Chorley Chorley 3-0 HT 1-0 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
0-3
AWAY Curzon Ashton
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Curzon Ashton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Curzon Ashton swept aside Chorley 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Curzon Ashton found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Chorley had 42% of the ball to Curzon Ashton's 58%, shots finished 8-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chorley and 0.67 for Curzon Ashton.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Curzon Ashton?

Chorley 0-3 Curzon Ashton in the England - Conference on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Curzon Ashton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Chorley 35%, draw 30%, Curzon Ashton 35%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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