Spezia 1-0 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.27
6+ Goals
9%
21.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.31
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
7%
5.12
X/2
14%
6.72
X/X
14%
3.98
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
14%
5.06
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.47/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.37
-3% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
24.5 Crosses 20.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sampdoria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.73 xG 0.76
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
301 Passes 253
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2025 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTK
06.04.2025 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
14.12.2024 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
20.04.2024 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
24.11.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
22.04.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
1-0
AWAY Sampdoria
0.88 xG 0.47
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 9
211 Passes 311
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia edged past Sampdoria 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Spezia made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Spezia had 43% of the ball to Sampdoria's 57%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.88 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spezia and 0.67 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Sampdoria?

Spezia 1-0 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Spezia 39%, draw 28%, Sampdoria 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5
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