Spezia 1-1 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 18 Aug 2025

📅18/08/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
19%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.32
6+ Goals
10%
22.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
22%
4.27
X/2
6%
7.79
X/X
14%
4.09
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
7%
6.56
2/X
5%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
48%
+6.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
19%
Away Win
24%
-4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 27%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.30/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/2.24
+39% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
27.0 Crosses 17.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sampdoria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.57 xG 0.82
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.04.2025 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
14.12.2024 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
20.04.2024 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
24.11.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
22.04.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
17.09.2022 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 1-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
1-1
AWAY Sampdoria
1.62 xG 0.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
240 Passes 227
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia and Sampdoria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Spezia carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Spezia had 50% of the ball to Sampdoria's 50%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 1.62 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Spezia and 0.67 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Sampdoria?

Spezia 1-1 Sampdoria in the Italy - Cup on 18/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Spezia 55%, draw 26%, Sampdoria 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spezia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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