Lorient 3-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 30 Nov 2025

Lorient
3-1 HT 2-1
Nice
📅30/11/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Lorient vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.59
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 27% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.38
1/2
12%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
12%
5.55
X/2
7%
6.43
X/X
13%
4.82
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
4.24
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.2pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lorient v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lorient EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 36%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.34/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.37
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 82%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.9 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lorient vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lorient
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Nice
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.80 xG 2.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
365 Passes 519
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.04.2024 Nice Nice 3-0 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
20.08.2023 Lorient Lorient 1-1 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1
19.03.2023 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 0-1 Lorient Lorient FR1
30.10.2022 Lorient Lorient 1-2 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
17.04.2022 Nice Nice 2-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
22.09.2021 Lorient Lorient 1-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1

Lorient 3-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lorient
3-1
AWAY Nice
2.38 xG 0.90
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
364 Passes 486
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
33 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lorient vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient beat Nice 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lorient as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lorient had 43% of the ball to Nice's 57%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.38 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lorient and 1.50 for Nice.

What was the final score of Lorient vs Nice?

Lorient 3-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lorient vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lorient 41%, draw 29%, Nice 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lorient), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lorient) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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