Deportes Tolima 1-0 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.07/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.16
-3% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
339 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
17.0 Crosses 14.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Santa Fe
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.83 xG 0.77
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 Passes 246
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-2 HT 1-2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
19.07.2025 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
01.02.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
30.09.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
03.06.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-2 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
06.05.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-0
AWAY Santa Fe
1.25 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
304 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 12
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima nicked a narrow win over Santa Fe 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 54% of the ball to Santa Fe's 46%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.25 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.83 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?

Deportes Tolima 1-0 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 46%, draw 29%, Santa Fe 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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30 Nov 2025
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