Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Molde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
46%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.96
Over 2.5
65%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.35
No
38%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.85
2-3 Goals
33%
2.19
4-5 Goals
31%
2.43
6+ Goals
17%
4.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
3.22
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
22.25
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
15%
6.16
X/2
15%
6.6
X/X
9%
6.71
2/1
7%
21.05
2/2
21%
3.57
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.25 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
40%
-10.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
46%
Away Win
36%
+10.4pp
35%
Under 2.5
30%
+5.3pp
65%
Over 2.5
70%
-5.3pp
62%
BTTS Yes
70%
-8.5pp
38%
BTTS No
30%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Molde EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.32/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.44
-25% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
20.9 Crosses 13.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Molde
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.43 xG 1.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
358 Passes 429
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Molde Molde 0-2 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
10.11.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-2 HT 2-2 Molde Molde NOR
20.05.2024 Molde Molde 2-4 HT 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
08.05.2024 Molde Molde 4-2 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
26.11.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-2 Molde Molde NOR
22.07.2023 Molde Molde 5-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
1-0
AWAY Molde
1.42 xG 2.59
22% Ball Possession 78%
8 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 11
153 Passes 704
71% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 57
10 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 squeezed past Molde 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Molde at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 22% of the ball to Molde's 78%, shots finished 8-26, expected goals 1.42 to 2.59 — on chances, Molde could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Molde led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 2.67 for Molde.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde?

Sarpsborg 08 1-0 Molde in the Norway - Eliteserien on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde?

Before kick-off our model rated an Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 30%, draw 23%, Molde 46%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Molde) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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