Molde 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.42
Draw
29%
4.49
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.61
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.96
2-3 Goals
33%
2.07
4-5 Goals
31%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
5.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.2
X/1
14%
3.79
X/2
11%
14.0
X/X
12%
7.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.1
2/2
7%
9.56
2/X
9%
18.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
66%
-18.6pp
29%
Draw
19%
+10.6pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.0pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.30/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.81
+28% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
34.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.3 Crosses 17.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Molde
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.08 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
410 Passes 416
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.05.2024 Molde Molde 4-2 HT 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
26.11.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-3 HT 0-2 Molde Molde NOR
22.07.2023 Molde Molde 5-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
12.07.2023 Molde Molde 3-1 HT 3-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOK
28.08.2022 Molde Molde 4-1 HT 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
26.05.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 1-2 HT 0-0 Molde Molde NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
2-4
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.66 xG 0.43
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
511 Passes 237
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
48 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Molde vs Sarpsborg 08
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 saw off Molde 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Molde at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Molde had 66% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 34%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.66 to 0.43 — on chances, Molde could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Molde had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Molde and 1.17 for Sarpsborg 08.

What was the final score of Molde vs Sarpsborg 08?

Molde 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Sarpsborg 08?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Molde 47%, draw 29%, Sarpsborg 08 24%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Molde) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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