31/01/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
Alcione vs Ligorna Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
Over
37%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
43%
4-5
17%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
48%
Home Win
71%
27%
Draw
18%
25%
Away Win
12%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alcione v Ligorna — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Alcione
The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ligorna
The Market 15%
-6% /
-6%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+63%
/
+150%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
52%
Ball Possession
48%
12
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
443 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
261 · 74%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Alcione vs Ligorna Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Alcione
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Ligorna
2.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
47%
Ball Possession
53%
8
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Target
7
5
Corners
2
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Alcione vs Ligorna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ligorna edged past Alcione 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Alcione at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Alcione vs Ligorna?
Alcione 0-1 Ligorna in the Italy - Serie D on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alcione vs Ligorna?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alcione win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Alcione 48%, draw 27%, Ligorna 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Alcione) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Alcione)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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More Italy - Serie D
31 Jan 2024