Bala Town 1-3 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bala Town EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.13/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.38
-33% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bala Town
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.01.2025 Bala Town Bala Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
31.12.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.08.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
21.04.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
08.03.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.11.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bala Town
1-3
AWAY Caernarfon Town
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town beat Bala Town 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Caernarfon Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bala Town had 46% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 54%, shots finished 12-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bala Town and 1.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Bala Town 1-3 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bala Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bala Town 39%, draw 28%, Caernarfon Town 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bala Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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